2021 census might have overestimated number of trans people in UK

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) has confirmed that the number of trans individuals living in the UK may have been overestimated by the 2021 census. Following a survey in England and Wales, it was reported that approximately one in 200 individuals aged over 16 identified as a different gender than their sex assigned at birth. However, a review found that those who are not fluent in English might have misunderstood the wording of the relevant question, leading some to incorrectly assert that they identify as trans.

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The ONS had previously defended its methodology, despite some academic concerns regarding its accuracy. Individuals who participated in the 2021 census in England and Wales were asked: “Is the gender you identify with the same as your sex registered at birth?” According to the ONS, 262,000 people—around 0.5% of the population—responded “no.”

However, according to ‘BBC’, on Wednesday Mary Gregory, a deputy director at the ONS, mentioned that some respondents may have misinterpreted the question. Writing on the ONS's website, she stated that there was “potential bias” in how the question was answered “by those who responded that they had lower levels of English proficiency, some of whom may have mistakenly given an answer suggesting they were trans.” She also added that the number of individuals who may have answered the question incorrectly is believed to be “relatively small,” but significant enough to create an inaccurate representation in areas with “higher levels of non-English speakers.”

In April, Michael Biggs, a sociology professor at Oxford University, publicly questioned the statistics. In an article for the British Sociological Society journal, he pointed out that a surprisingly large proportion of individuals recorded as identifying as trans did not speak English (or Welsh in Wales) as their primary language. Whereas only 10% of respondents indicated they did not speak English as their main language on the census, this group comprised 29% of the total number of trans individuals, according to Prof. Biggs.

For instance, the London Borough of Newham had the highest percentage of individuals identifying as trans (1.51%) and also one of the highest rates of non-English speakers at 35%, compared to a national average of 9%. In response to these potential flaws, the Office for Statistics Regulation downgraded the data from “accredited official statistics” to “official statistics in development.” The regulator confirmed that other statistics produced by the 2021 census are still regarded as fully accurate. The ONS had previously stated that its estimates regarding the transgender population aligned with “international comparators.”

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