Hungary’s new government faces strong voter demand on climate and LGBTQ+ rights

More than three-quarters of Hungarians who backed Péter Magyar’s Tisza party in last month’s election want his new government to take stronger action on the climate crisis, and more than 70% want explicit protection of LGBTQ+ rights, a new poll shows.

The survey, conducted in the days following the vote and published in The Guardian, indicates that 77% of Tisza voters support ambitious climate policy, while 71% back – or “somewhat” back – measures to safeguard the rights of LGBTQ+ people. These are precisely the areas that suffered some of the sharpest reversals under Viktor Orbán’s 16-year rule, particularly through anti-LGBTQ+ propaganda laws and restrictions on gender recognition and inclusive education.

Magyar, a former member of Orbán’s rightwing Fidesz party with a conservative profile, carefully avoided clear commitments on LGBTQ+ equality or other progressive themes during the campaign. Analysts widely interpreted this as an attempt to avoid attacks from a media environment in which an estimated 80% of outlets are in the hands of Fidesz loyalists.

Despite this cautious approach, the polling, commissioned by the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), suggests that Magyar’s electoral coalition is considerably more progressive than his public messaging. “There is a very clear mandate for the new government to have a more progressive stance,” said Pawel Zerka of the ECFR. “But it depends on whether Magyar looks at his own voters or the overall electorate, as the Hungarian public is much more divided on this.”

Magyar’s Tisza party secured a supermajority, ending Orbán’s long tenure. The new prime minister is due to be sworn in on Saturday, after weeks of celebrations in Budapest and cautiously optimistic reactions in Brussels. Yet, despite more than two years of campaigning and a 240-page election manifesto, concrete plans on climate and LGBTQ+ rights remain vague.

The poll shows that while Hungarian voters were clearly motivated by a desire for domestic change – including an end to corruption, attacks on independent institutions and systematic discrimination against marginalised groups – they remain divided on several key foreign policy issues.

Some 64% of respondents expect the new government to improve relations with Kyiv, but only 24% support Hungarian financial assistance to Ukraine’s war effort, and just 12% support military aid. A majority, 52%, oppose cutting off Russian energy imports, signalling strong concerns about energy prices and security.

“Péter Magyar’s landslide victory was a vote for domestic change, not for a geopolitical U-turn,” Zerka said. While many Hungarians want a clear break with Orbán’s isolationist and anti-LGBTQ+ agenda, they are wary of abrupt changes to energy policy or security alignments.

This ambivalence is central to the European Union’s recalibration of its relationship with Budapest. Ties have long been strained by Orbán’s efforts to frame Brussels as a hostile force and by Hungary’s backsliding on rule of law and minority protections, including repeated attacks on LGBTQ+ communities. The EU is eager to move quickly with Magyar to release billions of euros in frozen recovery funds, but the ECFR polling suggests that his political space remains constrained.

“The dilemma is that Brussels would want to use the opportunity for a broader U-turn,” Zerka said. “But if they push for these things too hard, they might divert the attention of the new administration and also risk breaking the neck of the new prime minister by placing him in a position where he would be seen by the Hungarian electorate as somebody who was forced by Brussels to accept unpalatable compromises.”

He cited Poland, where Prime Minister Donald Tusk has struggled to meet high expectations amid fierce polarisation, as a warning for how quickly approval can erode if reforms stall.

At the same time, Hungarian public opinion appears far more open to closer EU ties than under Orbán’s tenure. According to the poll, 79% of respondents expect the new government to improve relations with the EU, and 73% express confidence that Hungary will finally gain access to the withheld funds.

For LGBTQ+ communities and allies in Hungary and across Europe, the data points to a significant opportunity: a clear majority of Magyar’s own supporters want stronger protections for queer and trans people after years of state-led vilification. Whether the new government chooses to act on this mandate – by dismantling discriminatory laws, restoring inclusive education and aligning legal protections with EU standards – will be a key test of its commitment to equality.

Any reform agenda must also contend with Fidesz’s entrenched power. The party holds 52 of the 199 seats in parliament and retains influence throughout state institutions, public media and parts of the judiciary. “Viktor Orbán still has ways to control the situation, at least partly through his people at various levels of state institutions,” Zerka noted. “So while there are good reasons to celebrate today, there are also equally good reasons to be cautious about the coming months.”

As Magyar prepares to take office, he faces a decisive choice: whether to align his policy agenda with the clear pro-climate and pro-LGBTQ+ preferences of his base, or to govern more hesitantly in an attempt to keep a divided national electorate together. For Hungary’s LGBTQ+ people, long targeted by state policy and hostile rhetoric, the answer will determine whether this change in power leads to measurable gains in safety, dignity and legal equality.