Leaked US Court Opinion Suggests Abortion May Be Overturned, LGBTQ+ Rights In The Crosshairs

The first draft of a US Supreme Court judgment authored by Chief Justice Alito has suggested the court may overturn the landmark 1973 judgment in Roe vs. Wade, which legalized abortion across the entire United States. Writing the first draft, Alito called the judgment in Roe "egregiously wrong" and suggested that Planned Parenthood vs. Casey, a 1992 case which upholds Roe, must be overruled as well.

Following oral arguments made to the court in December of last year, the draft was written on February 10 this year and circulated to members of the court. It is not automatically the Court's outcome – the judgment is due in June, before the summer recess, and between February and June the Justices of the Supreme Court are entitled to change their votes on the case and redraft the Court's ruling opinion. However, if the votes do not change, Roe vs. Wade will be struck down by Summer. The draft, which was leaked to Politico, suggested that the current voting spilt was 5-3 in favor of overturning the ruling, split entirely down Republican/Democratic lines.

Roe vs. Wade currently makes the right to an abortion the law in all US states if it is not already enshrined in state law. Of the 50 US states, 26 are believed to have no state-level legislation permitting general access to abortion, with some states only permitting access in the event that the baby – or birth – poses a threat to health and life if brought to term.

Opposition to the judgment has often cited that it is not for the Federal Government to determine policy in this area, or that the Supreme Court should not legislate on such contentious matter. This objection has been raised in the past – including by Chief Justice Alito himself, who has criticized gay marriage on the same grounds. In the draft, seen by Politico, Alito attacks the judgments in both Obergefell vs. Hodges, and Lawrence vs. United States, which legalized gay marriage and homosexuality at a federal level respectively, as a means to demonstrate the issues with legislating on these matters via the Supreme Court. If repealed, gay marriage could potentially be unlawful in 30 states, and homosexuality in 12.

The true judgment may not be known until June, but this leak is likely to raise the temperature as both sides – both pro and anti-abortion – clash, and will galvanize mid-term voters in one direction or another.

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